CATALONIA LOCKS HORNS WITH MADRID OVER INDEPENDENCE

September 13, 2012

Catalonia’s capital, Barcelona, was awash with red and yellow flags on Tuesday, as pro-independence Catalans held their annual rally in its streets. An estimated 1.5 million people, which is almost 20% of the population of the Autonomous Community, took part. Recent polls suggest that the drive for independence is accelerating rapidly, with nearly half of the population now in favour complete secession from Spain. Full independence under the aegis of the EU would minimise the risks of breaking away, while leaving the benefits intact; the main one being not having to subsidise the rest of Spain with disproportionate taxes relative to what it receives in return.

The region's union with Aragon dates back to 1137, with the marriage of Ramon Berenguer IV, Count of Barcelona to Queen Petronilla of Aragon. Then, with the marriage of the Reyes Católicos, Queen Isabella I of Castile and King Ferdinand II of Aragon, in October 19, 1469, the region became firmly established as part of the Spanish realm. This was further consolidated when Charles I became the first sole-reigning King of Spain in 1516. A divorce so late in the day, then, seems a bit rich, particularly when money seems to be the main motivating force. The Catalans do have a point, though, and significant cultural differences should not be discounted either. Catalonia’s banning of bullfighting which came into force this year, for instance, was a clear assertion of its distinctness from the rest of Spain. And then there is language, art, architecture...

Yes the Catalan's do have a case, as do the Basques further west, and possibly all separatists around the world.

So what would happen if they were all allowed to break away by their central governments? What if, say, the United Nations were to agree a formula for secession:

• The population must be over 5,000,000 within a self-contained region
• The region could span different countries
• The area must not contain extraneous pockets
• The vote for independence would have to exceed 75%

I expect that many a little patch that would meet the conditions would opt for independence, as long as their bank balance was healthier than that of neighbouring areas. Some would see this as justice, others as selfish greed. Whatever the case, without a larger community like the EU defending the nascent state, most of its added wealth would end up being wasted on defence. Even then it would have to allocate vast sums of money to its new central government and Foreign Office. As for Catalonia, it had also better start investing in reverse osmosis.