ASSANGE STALEMATE: THE BALL IS VERY MUCH IN SWEDISH HANDS

September 2, 2012

As the Julian Assange case drags on, one wonders how long it will take to resolve. It already appears to have gone on for ever and yet his asylum in the Ecuadorian Embassy only started on June 19, 2012. If the British government should choose to be as intransigent as the Soviet Union, he could be there for a good many years to come...

The Hungarian Cardinal József Mindszenty is a case in point. After having been liberated from his imprisonment by the Nazi regime in 1945, he was soon behind bars again in 1948, this time under the Communists. He was freed during the short lived Hungarian Revolution of 1956 and this gave him a brief window of opportunity to seek refuge in the US Embassy in Budapest. He stayed there until 1971: a period of 15 years! His release was the outcome of a compromise Pope Paul VI reached with the Hungarian regime.

Another example is that of Burundi's president, Sylvestre Ntibantunganya, who sought asylum in the US Embassy in the events leading to his overthrow in a coup in July 1996. He was there for almost a year.

He could be waiting a long time

Short of trying to ship Mr Assange off in a crate, as happened in November 1964 to Mordechai Louk, an Israeli citizen spying for Arab interests, Mr Assange has little hope of getting away without some sort of agreement. Even Mr Louk, did not quite make it. The trunk he was in, which was labelled: UAR Embassy - Diplomatic Bag - Do not open, was intercepted in Rome when custom officers heard moans within. It was whisked away by awaiting agents before they could open it, but was eventually retrieved after a blockbuster car chase. So instead of the safety of an Arab nation Mr Louk ended up in an Israeli prison. Mr Assange could face a similar end if he attempted anything unconventional.

The status quo, however, is not helping anybody. Diplomatic relations between the UK and Ecuador are deteriorating; other South American nations, already fed up with Britain over the Falklands/Malvinas situation, are becoming even more unsympathetic and Britain's motives are increasingly being questioned by more than just a few freedom of speech fanatics. Of course Britain cannot just take a u-turn without serious consequences. What Britain needs is the Swedish government to give it a helping hand, rather than just sitting there making its demands and stamping its feet. A bit of flexibility there could see Mr Assange face investigators here within the relative safety from the threat of being carted off to the US. The more the British government prevaricates, the more everyone has to lose.