SOUTH SUDAN IS ONE TODAY: MANY HAPPIER RETURNS...

July 9, 2012

The worlds newest UN recognised nation celebrates its first year today. It has much to think about as it blows that candle out.

While the military parades roll through the streets of the capital, Juba, one would hope that all the blood was well scrubbed off the uniforms and equipment. Admittedly, it has not been easy for President Salva Kiir and his government. On the one hand he has to deal with with Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir who is constantly flexing his muscles and referring to his southern neighbours as "insects" to be crushed; on the other, tribes within his own borders are frequently rebelling and raiding each others land with the most devastating consequences imaginable. The problem is that President Kiir always takes the bate.

In January President Kiir seemed to display tactical courage when, in protest at Sudan's demands for transit fees, he reduced oil production to starve the pipeline that runs through Sudan to the Red Sea. The move was detrimental to both nations, but both are sticking to their guns, so the pipes are still dry. The deadlock it is like a game of poker caught in a Buñuel film... And history is being made.

Next we have the border clashes. By March these had escalated to a point where any meaningful dialogue between Juba and Khartoum had ceased. On the 10th April, responding to provocation from al-Bashir's forces, South Sudan occupied the oil-rich and disputed South Kordofan town of Heglig. In response to international condemnation, President Kiir responded bluntly that it traditionally belonged to the south anyway. Whether it was this pressure that forced the South Sudanese forces to relinquish it or the might of the north, is uncertain, but the clashes continue...And history is being made.

Finally there is the internal strife, which perhaps is the worst of all. Hundreds of people have died this year alone because of Shilluk rebellions and violence between the Murle and Lou Nuer communities. The army has added to the tragedy by slaughtering hundreds of Shilluk, Murle and Nuer in an attempt to disarm them. There are also countless reports of rape and torture... And all the while history is being made.

The best news this year, perhaps, has been the accords with China which has pledged billions of US dollars to support the building of the nascent nation's infrastructure. Let us hope that that does not mean tanks and other ammunition.

So the first pages of South Sudan's history will not make for happy reading. Chapter two is about to begin. President Kiir: please surprise us and show us what you can pull out of that cowboy hat!