NAGORNO-KARABAKH ELECTIONS GOAD AZERBAIJAN

July 18, 2012

Azerbaijan has reacted angrily to the presidential elections that are planned for tomorrow in the Armenian backed and self-proclaimed republic of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Turkey, which shares a tiny border with Azerbaijan, has also condemned the move, describing it as an affront to Azerbaijani sovereignty and in breach of international law. The concerns are understandable given the turbulent history of the region.

The area is nestled well within the borders of Azerbaijan, although the make-up of the population is predominantly Armenian. Both countries claimed it when they experienced independence for the brief period between the fall of the Russian Empire in 1918 and their annexation into the Soviet Union in 1923. During the Soviet era, the disputed area was given autonomous status as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), but trouble started to flare again as the iron curtain began to fray. A referendum held with neighbouring Shahumian in December 1991 led to a declaration of independence and this, in turn, was followed by full scale war with Azerbaijan which lasted until 1994. Armenia maintained the upper hand and the truce left the region in control, although its status as an independent republic was only recognised by Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, which, like Nagorno-Karabakh, are also unrecognised by any UN member state.

The Minsk Group of countries, co-chaired by the US, France and Russia, have been actively working to resolve the issues since the early 1990s. In 2008 a UN resolution demanded "the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of all Armenian forces from all occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan."

So it is really negotiating time, not time to raise the stakes. The funny thing is that the map of Armenia and Azerbaijan looks so silly. Anyone with a sense of geography must contemplate it with the uncontrollable urge of wanting to tidy it up:

"Okay, we'll stick Nakhchivan over there, cut and paste Nagorno-Karabakh in its place; and that settles it!"

"NO, no, no!" Says another. "All we need is a little corridor there, around the Iranian border and bridge over there from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh and we hardly have to displace a soul!"

By the end of it they would probably need their very own The Minsk Group to stop them from killing each other.

But the map is important. If we look at it carefully, it is not unlike the ying yang symbol. And the great thing about that, is that it is the diversity that gives it its power and keeps it all together. If they see the potential of that, who knows: they may start to live happily together after all.