ASSAD'S LAST CHANCE TO NEGOTIATE

November 11, 2012

Syrian cleric Moaz al-Khatib, who had fled to Egypt last July after several interrogations and detentions, has been chosen to lead the opposition movement against President Bashar al-Assad and his government. Sheikh Moaz al-Khatib, 52, is a moderate who is also cultured and experienced in dealing with people and events; as such, he appears to be the perfect choice to lead the up-until-now disjointed and somewhat unruly band of anti-Assad factions.

Sheikh al-Khatib studied applied geophysics and followed his distinguished father as Imam at the Grand Umayyad Mosque in Damascus. He has been prominent in the in the opposition movement while in exile and had warned President Assad a month ago that he should negotiate an exit strategy before it became too late. Ironically, with Sheikh al-Khatib's election, that opportunity is drawing to a close and it's now or never for President Assad. A united opposition, led by the moderate and sensible Sheikh al-Khatib, means that western powers will be more inclined to step-up their tactical support and may even be tempted to raise the stakes. Turkey, a NATO member, already has a pretext or two and now Israel, one of the USA's closest allies, is firing warning shots over Syria after one of its outpost in the occupied Golan Heights was hit in the "crossfire" from across the border.

Estimates put the death toll of the conflict, which started in March 2011, somewhere between 36,000 and 40,880; the last figure being that give by the opposition website Syrian Martyrs. UNICEF states that 500 of the dead were children. Thousands more have been made homeless or have fled the country.

With such a legacy, perhaps President Assad feels it would already be too late for him to escape with his life. Even if this were the case, the longer he hangs on, the poorer will be the chances of his friends and allies. So even if he could cherish a life prolonging at the expense of so many innocent civilians, he needs to think of those he does care about, if there are any.