"CLIMATE IS WHAT WE EXPECT, WEATHER IS WHAT WE GET." MARK TWAIN

August 12, 2012

So far, the unusually intense rainy season in Sudan has already killed 32 people and left thousands homeless. Crops and livestock have been devastated. In the Philippines the situation is no better with at least 85 fatalities, as freaky monsoon rains battered the island of Luzon, flooding much of the capital Manila. Meanwhile, fire-fighters are struggling to cope with wild fires in the Spanish Canary Islands of La Gomera and Tenerife. Thousands have had to flee their homes in a situation exacerbated by unusually high temperatures. A similar scenario is taking place near Mount Athos in Greece.

We have been hearing so much about this extreme and bizarre weather lately that it would not be surprising if we should became immune to it. So we plod on as if nothing happened while the planet groans before our very eyes. The problem is that many people are more concerned about exploiting the present to care too much about the future. They would have us believe that climate has always been temperamental and that therefore we should not make a fuss. True, climate varies through the ages, but it would be foolish to be too complacent. Here are some extracts from the Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2012: Summary for Policymakers), by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

"It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights, and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights, at the global scale, that is, for most land areas with sufficient data. It is likely that these changes have also occurred at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia. There is medium confidence in a warming trend in daily temperature extremes in much of Asia. Confidence in observed trends in daily temperature extremes in Africa and South America generally varies from low to medium depending on the region. In many (but not all) regions over the globe with sufficient data, there is medium confidence that the length or number of warm spells or heat waves has increased.

"There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions. It is likely that more of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends...

"There is evidence that some extremes have changed as a result of anthropogenic influences, including increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale. There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to an increase in mean sea level. The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. Attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change is challenging...

"Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century at the global scale. It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas. Based on the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios, a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event...

"Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with closer links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism. For example, while it is not currently possible to reliably project specific changes at the catchment scale, there is high confidence that changes in climate have the potential to seriously affect water management systems. However, climate change is in many instances only one of the drivers of future changes, and is not necessarily the most important driver at the local scale. Climate-related extremes are also expected to produce large impacts on infrastructure, although detailed analysis of potential and projected damages are limited to a few countries, infrastructure types, and sectors..."

And so on... Perhaps it is time we took a closer look in order to see whether there is anything we can do to save the weather.