PRESIDENT MOHAMMED MORSI BRINGS HOPE AND UNCERTAINTY TO EGYPT'S NEW DEMOCRACY
24th June 2012

The worst of the best possible scenarios in Egypt, now that Mohamed Morsi has won the presidential elections, is a compromise with the military that will very gradually give way to a fully fledged and inclusive democracy. The military elite will be given the time it needs to legitimise its financial assets and cover up its murky past, while liberals will be allowed enough breathing space to survive any bigotry the Brotherhood may impose on the nation, until better times and farer elections. There will be a status quo with Israel and the economy will be saved from disaster thanks to a steady increase in tourism and market confidence.

Anything better than this is so unlikely, that it is hardly worth considering. After all, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) dissolved parliament by means of the country’s constitutional court (which it strongly influences) and voted itself new powers while the electoral process was in full swing; it is unlikely to “go gentle into that good night”. Nor do Morsi’s years as a fundamentalist MP between 2000 and 2005 bode well for tourism, liberals or foreign policy. Morsi won with 51.7% of the vote against Ahmed Shafiq’s 48.3. Shafiq was the last prime minister under Hosni Mubarak and the turnout of the run-off elections was a mere 51%: this is hardly a ringing endorsement of the Brotherhood.

But it was hope that brought Egypt this far; and hope may surprise us yet. For all we know Morsi will be true to his word that “the presidency will be an institution” and that “the Superman era is over”.